05 October 2015
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
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In this issue
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Strong El Niño conditions were established during September 2015. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the NINO3.4 region are close to +2°C (+1.96°C), while they exceed this threshold in the NINO3 region (eastern Pacific: 90oW – 150oW), with the latest monthly value reaching +2.12°C.-
South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast October to December 2015
The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. -
Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: October to December 2015
The dynamical models are all in agreement to forecast continuing El Niño conditions for the October – December 2015 period. -
ICU Water Watch
Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.