Download the PDF: Island Climate Update 192
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently near neutral but leaning towards a weak La Niña state. Sea Surface TeSea Surface Temperatures are near to below average across the eastern Equatorial Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is slightly positive (+0.6 for August 2016).
International guidance still slightly favours La Niña conditions (53% chance) over the next three month period (September - November 2016), however the probability of neutral conditions over the next 3 months is almost equally as high (45% chance). The likelihood of La Niña conditions becoming established in the Pacific increase slightly to reach 55% chance for December 2016 – February 2017. In summary, both the current state and recent evolution of the ocean-atmosphere system in the Pacific, as well as the models’ forecasts, suggest that if La Niña develops, it will be characterized by a short duration and weak amplitude.
Rainfall outlook table for September– November 2016
Regional drought potential advisory
Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months
Niue: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 5 of the past 6 months. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months. Northern and Southern Vanuatu: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 4 of the past 6 months. Near normal rainfall is forecast in southern Vanuatu and normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for northern Vanuatu for the next 3 months. Federated States of Micronesia, KiribaI (Gilberts), Wallis & Futuna: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 3 of the past 6 months. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months for Wallis and Futuna while below normal rainfall is forecast for FSM and the Gilbert Islands. New Caledonia: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 4 of the past 6 months. Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.
