Updated climate projections to better plan for climate risk
Updated climate projections for Aotearoa New Zealand have been released by NIWA and the Ministry for the Environment. These projections will support our transition to a low-emissions, climate-resilient economy. NIWA is using this data to help New Zealanders better understand their climate-related risks to improve decision making for climate adaptation and to support resilience to extreme weather events.
The projections came from the latest suite of global climate models – called the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, or CMIP6. The six models used, which fed into the most recent IPCC report, were selected based on their performance over our region and range of future warming rates. The downscaling process took 12 months to run on NIWA’s supercomputer – the equivalent of running 150 modern high-end laptops constantly for a year.
You can read more about the research and development of the projections dataset here.
Tailoring climate projections data to your needs
The climate projections data is freely available under a CC-BY4.0 License and can be accessed via a Ministry for the Environment (MfE) data portal. The comprehensive climate projection dataset includes numerous variables and scenarios, as well as a range of time slices, making it suitable for many user needs.
We understand that some users may have other bespoke data requirements beyond what is readily available from MfE. NIWA is able to tailor the dataset to meet your specific needs.
Examples include:
- Temporal resolution. Daily or hourly timeseries can be produced to be used as inputs into other models – for example in hydrological applications. Monthly data offers insights about particular months that may be of interest for commercial needs. For example, how growing season characteristics may change in different regions of the country.
- Future projection period. Line up projections with planning cycles and length, for example you may be interested in the future climate of 2070 based on an asset lifetime.
- Model spread and additional statistics. The core projections are based on a six-model average. Considering the standard deviation and model spread could be used to better assess risk of particular thresholds. For example, what percentage of models show that a particular location is frost free by 2050.
- Parameter thresholds. Tailor projections to critical operational thresholds. For example, lines companies may be interested to know how many days above a certain temperature there may be in the future (line sagging). For horticulture, the winter chilling days below a certain temperature may be important.
- Additional variables and indices. NIWA can leverage our extensive data and capabilities to create custom indices to meet specific needs. Recently developed bespoke variables include heatwave duration and meteorological drought frequency. Variables in development include compound extreme events, tropical cyclone strength and frequency. Indices in development include financial risk scores.
NIWA services: interpreting the data and planning for climate risk
NIWA offers a range of services, translating this climate information to respond to adaptation, planning and reporting needs. Examples include:
- Reports. Based on the data written by NIWA climate scientists.
- Data analysis. NIWA data scientists can combining climate data and projections with your business data. NIWA maintains a comprehensive reanalysis dataset for New Zealand that can be used to understand historic trends combined with projections.
- Localised maps of climate change projections. These can be tailored to your unique branding needs.
- Summary statistics. These might be for points or defined areas.
- Data animations and video. Including the option for a presenter to walk you through the data. These can be tailored to your unique content and branding needs.
- Presentations of expected projections. These could be useful for engaging with your company or board.
- Dynamic adaptive pathways planning and physical climate storylines. This can help you better understand and convey complex issues.
Why choose NIWA?
NIWA can help you grasp both the present and anticipated effects of climate-related risks and opportunities.
Considerable time, effort and expertise had gone into producing the projections. The data have been rigorously tested and refined for our region using local observations, with the underlying science peer-reviewed and published in several reputable sources.
This ensures that decision critical data is not coming from "black box models", where accuracy and reliability are difficult to assess. Our team of climate scientists, modelers, and data experts specialise in applying downscaled climate projections to best meet your decision making needs – whether it’s climate related disclosures, risk assessment, adaptation planning or something in between.
We navigate the complexities of climate data, ensuring you receive the most reliable and relevant information for your needs.
NIWA can also leverage its multi-disciplinary science expertise ranging from freshwater to environmental economics to help organisations better understand the systemic risks posed by climate change, from eco-systems to socio-economic systems.
