Island Climate Update 168 - September 2014

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain warmer than normal in the Pacific but are below El Niño thresholds.

The equatorial Pacific Ocean remains ENSO–neutral at the end of August 2014. Despite the Southern Oscillation Index being currently negative, a fully coupled (ocean – atmosphere) El Niño event has yet to initiate.

For September – November 2014, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is forecast to sit close to normal for the time of year.

The dynamical models forecasts forecasts indicate that several regions of the Pacific south of the Equator are likely to receive less rainfall than normal during the September to November 2014 season.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data