Island Climate Update 166 - July 2014

03 July 2014

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

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Island Climate Update

In this issue

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    Introduction

    Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain warmer than normal in the central and eastern Pacific, at or above El Niño thresholds.

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    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    The Pacific Ocean carried on being borderline between neutral and weak El Niño conditions in June 2014.

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    South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast July to September 2014

    The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

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    Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: July to September 2014

    The dynamical forecast models are predicting rainfall patterns generally consistent with the expected development of El Niño over the July – September 2014 period.

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    Data Sources