Island Climate Update 158 - November 2013

05 November 2013

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

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Island Climate Update

In this issue

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    Introduction

    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

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    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    The tropical Pacific remained in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in October 2013.

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    South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast November 2013 to January 2014

    The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

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    Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: November 2013 to January 2014

    The dynamical models continue to indicate slightly drier conditions than normal in the far eastern Pacific south of the Equator, while the November 2013 to January 2014 period is forecast to be slightly wetter than normal in the western Pacific along and north of the Equator as well as in the central Pacific south of the Equator.

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    Data sources

    Sources of South Pacific rainfall data