14 April 2015
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Download ICU 175 (PDF 312 KB)
Download ICU Water Watch (PDF 315 KB)
In this issue
Introduction
Sea surface temperatures anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific are maximum around the international Dateline and reflect weak El Niño conditions in March 2015.-
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific intensified significantly around the international Dateline during March 2015 and are currently showing a pattern consistent with weak ‘central Pacific’ or ‘Modoki’ El Niño conditions. -
South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast April to June 2015
The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. -
Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: April to June 2015
The dynamical model forecasts indicate that the central equatorial Pacific is likely to experience above normal rainfall in April – June 2015. In contrast, regions in the western Pacific south of the Equator, as well as the south eastern Pacific are expected to experience reduced rainfall. Below normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, the Marquesas, Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu. -
ICU Water Watch
Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.