Island Climate Update 47 - August 2004

The South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project
Australian Marine Science and Technology, National Tidal Facility and Australian Bureau of Meteorology
More than a decade has passed since the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project began measuring sea level and associated meteorological variables in the region.

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 47 – 6 August 2004
July’s climate: The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended from the Solomon Islands to the Marquesas Islands; with high rainfall occurring in some of these areas, High rainfall, exceeding 100 mm occurred in parts of Fiji on 23 July, Suppressed convection occurred over Papua New Guinea and low rainfall occurred in parts of New Caledonia and Queensland, Australia,

Forecast validation
Forecast period: May to July 2004
Enhanced convection was expected in the Southwest Pacific equatorial region resulting in above average rainfall in the Solomon Islands and average or above average rainfall in Western and Eastern Kiribati, Samoa, and the Northern Cook Islands, as well as central and southern French Polynesia.

ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures
SOI negative for second month
Equatorial Pacific about 1.0°C warmer than normal
The tropical Pacific remains near neutral, with mixed warming and cooling signals and a fluctuating SOI over the past few months. July equatorial SST anomalies were below average near the South American coast, but above normal in the remainder of the equatorial Pacific east of the Date Line, and more than 1.0°C above normal near the Date Line.
The NINO3 SST anomaly was +0.0°C for July (+0.1°C in June), and NINO4 was +1.0°C (+0.6°C in June).

Climate developments in July 2004
The SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) extended from the Solomon Islands to the region north of Fiji, and across Samoa to the Northern Cook Islands and the Marquesas Islands, with average or above average rainfall (more than 200% of normal on Rotuma Island) over much of its extent. High rainfall, exceeding 100 mm, occurred in parts of Fiji on 23 July. Enhanced convection and about 200% of average rainfall occurred over Pitcairn Island.

Rainfall outlook for August to October 2004
Above average rainfall likely in Eastern and Western Kiribati
Suppressed convection in Papua New Guinea and the Coral Sea is expected
The continuing lack of coherence between the atmosphere and the ocean in the equatorial Pacific Ocean means that the mix of global model seasonal rainfall forecast guidance is still inconsistent.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations:
American Samoa
Australia
Cook Islands
Fiji
French Polynesia
Kiribati
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Papua New Guinea
Pitcairn Island
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tokelau
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned.
Acknowledgements
This bulletin is made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), Wellington, New Zealand, wi