Island Climate Update 61 - October 2005

Tropical cyclone guidance for the 2005/06 season
Dr Jim Salinger, Stuart Burgess and Dr Jim Renwick
Figure 1: Average annual number of Tropical Cyclones, Neutral ENSO periods, Nov-May from 1970/71 to 2004/05. (Click for enlargement)
The tropical cyclone season, from November – May, is likely to be near average intensity throughout much of the South Pacific, with a normal frequency of occurrence expected in most areas this season, due to the El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions (i.e.

Climate developments in September 2005
Outgoing Long-wave Radiation anomalies for September 2005. (Click for enlargement and detail)
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended from the region northeast of Papua New Guinea and towards Samoa and Niue. A large area of enhanced convection affected the northwest Pacific, extending south towards Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, and northeast to merge with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) north of the Equator.

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 61 – September 2005
September’s climate
Large areas of enhanced convection affected the northwest Pacific, extending south towards Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands
Suppressed convection existed over the region between Vanuatu and Eastern Kiribati, including Tuvalu and the Northern Cook Islands
Above average rainfall in Niue, parts of Fiji, Tonga, and the Society Islands of French

Tropical rainfall outlook: October to December 2005
Rainfall outlook map for October to December 2005. (Click for enlargement)
A large region of enhanced convection is expected from Papua New Guinea eastwards to the Solomon Islands, and Samoa.
Another region of near or above average rainfall is likely from Niue east to the Austral Islands, including the Cook Islands and the Society Islands.
Rainfall is expected to be near or below average over Western Kiribati and Tuvalu.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations:
American Samoa
Australia
Cook Islands
Fiji
French Polynesia
Kiribati
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Papua New Guinea
Pitcairn Island
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tokelau
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned.
Acknowledgements
This bulletin is made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), Wellington, New Zealand, wi