Island Climate Update 88 - January 2008

Number of observed cyclones per season 1820–2006, Cook Islands
Insights provided by a historical database of tropical cyclones and their impacts in the Cook Islands
Dr. Fes de Scally, University of British Columbia-Okanagan, Canada
Historical tropical cyclone activity
Since 1820 at least 143 tropical cyclones have occurred inside the Cook Islands’ 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Since 1970 when satellite imagery has allowed comprehensive monitoring of tropical cyclones, a total of 65 cyclones have affected the Cook Islands.

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 88 – January 2008
December’s climate
South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extends from Papua New Guinea toward Fiji, and from Samoa to the Society Islands
Tropical cyclone Daman (Category 4) brings high rainfall and winds to parts of northern Fiji; initial damage costs exceed US$0.4 million
Suppressed convection intensifies over Kiribati, and spreads west, bringing low rainfall
Above averag

Climate developments in December 2007
Outgoing Long-wave Radiation anomalies for December 2007. (Click for enlargement and detail)
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended from the monsoon trough over Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and toward Fiji, displaced further south and west than normal for the time of year in that region. Another portion of the SPCZ extended from the region north of Samoa to the Society Islands and further southeast.

Tropical rainfall outlook: January 2008 to March 2008
Rainfall outlook map for January 2008 to March 2008. (Click for enlargement)
La Niña conditions are still very likely to influence rainfall patterns during this period, with a large area of suppressed convection very likely along the equatorial Pacific from Western Kiribati to Eastern Kiribati, including Tuvalu, the Northern Cook Islands, the Marquesas, and the Tuamotu Islands.

Tropical Pacific rainfall - December 2007
Territory and station name
December 2007 rainfall
total (mm)
December 2007 percent
of average
Australia
Cairns Airport
321.2
175
Townsville Airport
137.6
105
Brisbane Airport
36.2
29
Sydney Airport
74.8
98
Cook Islands
Penrhyn
31.2
10
Aitutaki
Rarotonga Airport
228.9
122
Rarotonga EWS
211.2
112
Fiji
Rotuma
236.4
83
Udu Point
629.7
239
Nadi Airport
310.6
174
Nausori
279.9
105
French Polynesia
Hiva Hoa, Atuona
49.2
49
Bora Bora
464.6
171
Tahiti – Faa’a
439.8
124
Tuamotu, Takaroa
2

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations:
American Samoa
Australia
Cook Islands
Fiji
French Polynesia
Kiribati
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Papua New Guinea
Pitcairn Island
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tokelau
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned.
Acknowledgements
This bulletin is produced by NIWA and made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), with addi