Island Climate Update 169 - October 2014

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

11 November 2014

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Download ICU 169 (PDF 314KB)

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Island Climate Update

In this issue

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    Introduction

    Oceanic and atmospheric indicators are pointing in the direction of a possible weak El Niño event developing.

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    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    During September 2014, borderline El Niño conditions returned in the Pacific Ocean.

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    South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast October to December 2014

    The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

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    Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: October to December 2014

    The dynamical model forecasts indicate again this month that several Island groups in the Pacific south of the Equator are likely to receive less rainfall than normal during the October to December 2014 season.

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    Data sources

    Sources of South Pacific rainfall data