Island Climate Update 73 - October 2006

Tropical cyclone guidance for the 2006–07 season
Weak to moderate El Niño conditions are likely to increase the chances of tropical cyclone activity for several tropical South Pacific countries over coming months.
Figure 1. Tropical Cylone intensity in the South West Pacific
For the coming tropical cyclone season, from November 2006 – May 2007, we are likely to see above average numbers of tropical cyclones in several parts of the South Pacific near and east of the Date Line.

Climate developments in September 2006
Outgoing Long-wave Radiation anomalies for September 2006. (Click for enlargement and detail)
During September, convection associated with the SPCZ was near normal. There were weak regions of enhanced convection over Papua New Guinea, parts of Western Kiribati, Wallis and Futuna, and Samoa. There no significant areas of suppressed convection.
High September rainfall occurred in parts of the Tuamotu Islands (429% of normal) of French Polynesia, and parts of Fiji.

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 73 – October 2006
September’s climate
South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) near its normal location
Exceptionally high rainfall in the Tuamotu Islands, and wet in parts of Tonga and Samoa
Below average rainfall in parts of New Caledonia
Temperature: Below average in parts of New Caledonia, and the Southern Cook Islands
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal rainfall forec

Tropical rainfall outlook: October to December 2006
Rainfall outlook map for October to December 2006. (Click for enlargement)
The seasonal rainfall forecast patterns in the Pacific region are consistent with the developing El Niño conditions in equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Enhanced convection is likely in the equatorial region of Western and Eastern Kiribati and Tuvalu where rainfall is expected to be above average.

Tropical Pacific rainfall - September 2006
Territory and station name
August 2006 rainfall
total (mm)
August 2006 percent
of average
Australia
Cairns Airport
66.8
186
Townsville Airport
29.6
269
Brisbane Airport
27.4
107
Sydney Airport
144.8
230
Cook Islands
Penrhyn
139.8
94
Rarotonga Airport
127.7
117
Fiji
Rotuma
220.6
93
Udu Point
157.8
140
Nadi
88.3
126
Nausori
328.9
199
Ono-I-Lau
138.6
128
French Polynesia
Hiva Hoa, Atuona
95.2
129
Bora Bora Motu
94.4
145
Tahiti – Faa’a
17.8
35
Tuamotu, Takaroa
351.6
429
Gambier, Riki

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations:
American Samoa
Australia
Cook Islands
Fiji
French Polynesia
Kiribati
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Papua New Guinea
Pitcairn Island
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tokelau
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned.
Acknowledgements
This bulletin is made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), Wellington, New Zealand, wi