Island Climate Update 193 - October 2016

Download the PDF: Island Climate Update 193

ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions are still present in the tropical Pacific Ocean as a whole, although some indicators are currently in the weak La Niña category.

International guidance still slightly favors La Niña conditions (54% chance) over the next three months (October - December 2016) however neutral conditions are forecast to become slightly more likely than La Niña by January – March 2017 (50% chance for neutral) and the probability for La Niña drops sharply later on, with only 24% chance in April – June 2017. In summary, La Niña conditions are only slightly more likely than not over the next 3 months, and become less likely as we progress into the first half of 2017.

October to December 2016 rainfall forecast

Regional drought potential advisory

Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months

Kiribati, Gilbert and Line Islands: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 4 of the past 6 months in the Gilbert Islands and 3 of the past 6 months in the Line Island. Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.

Northern and Southern Vanuatu: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 5 of the past 6 months. Near normal rainfall is forecast in northern Vanuatu and normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for southern Vanuatu for the next 3 months.

New Caledonia: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 4 of the past 6 months. Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3.