El Niño
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently near neutral. Sea Surface Temperatures in the equatorial Pacific close to or slightly below normal in the east and slightly above normal in the west. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is slightly positive (+0.7 for June 2017).
International guidance indicates that La Niña conditions are likely to appear (57% chance) over the next three month period (July to September 2016). The likelihood of La Niña conditions becoming established in the Pacific increases slightly later on, and reaches 65% in the first three months of 2017, however model forecasts suggest that if La Niña indeed develops, it is likely to remain in the weak or moderate category.
Rainfall outlook table for July – September 2016
|
ISLAND |
PROBABILITY (%) |
OUTLOOK |
CONFIDENCE |
||
|
Below |
Normal |
Above |
|||
|
Cook Islands (Northern) |
10 |
30 |
60 |
ABOVE |
High |
|
Tokelau |
20 |
30 |
50 |
ABOVE |
High |
|
Tuvalu |
20 |
35 |
45 |
ABOVE |
High |
|
Marquesas |
25 |
35 |
40 |
AVG - ABOVE |
High |
|
Samoa |
25 |
35 |
40 |
AVG - ABOVE |
Moderate-High |
|
Tuamotu Islands |
25 |
35 |
40 |
AVG - ABOVE |
Moderate-High |
|
New Caledonia |
30 |
40 |
30 |
NEAR NORMAL |
High |
|
Pitcairn Island |
30 |
40 |
30 |
NEAR NORMAL |
Moderate |
|
Solomon Islands |
30 |
40 |
30 |
NEAR NORMAL |
Moderate-High |
|
Society Islands |
30 |
35 |
35 |
CLIMATOLOGY |
High |
|
Papua New Guinea |
35 |
35 |
30 |
CLIMATOLOGY |
Moderate-High |
|
Vanuatu (South) |
35 |
40 |
25 |
AVG - BELOW |
Moderate-High |
|
Wallis & Futuna |
35 |
40 |
25 |
AVG - BELOW |
Moderate-High |
|
Austral Islands |
40 |
35 |
25 |
AVG - BELOW |
Moderate-High |
|
Cook Islands (Southern) |
40 |
35 |
25 |
AVG - BELOW |
Moderate-High |
|
Fiji |
40 |
35 |
25 |
AVG - BELOW |
Moderate-High |
|
Niue |
40 |
35 |
25 |
AVG - BELOW |
Moderate-High |
|
Tonga |
40 |
35 |
25 |
AVG - BELOW |
Moderate-High |
|
Vanuatu (North) |
45 |
35 |
20 |
BELOW |
Moderate-High |
|
Kiribati (Eastern) |
50 |
30 |
20 |
BELOW |
High |
|
Kiribati (Western) |
50 |
30 |
20 |
BELOW |
Moderate-High |
|
FSM |
60 |
30 |
10 |
BELOW |
Moderate-High |
July to September 2016 rainfall forecast
Regional drought potential advisory
Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.
Niue, Southern Cook Islands: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 5 of the past 6 months. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.
Federated States of Micronesia, Vanuatu North: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 4 of the past 6 months. Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.
Fiji, Vanuatu South, New Caledonia: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 4 of the past 6 months. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months for Fiji and Vanuatu South. Near normal rainfall is forecast for New Caledonia.
Download the PDF: Island Climate Update 190