Island Climate Update 197 - February 2017

Download the PDF: Island Climate Update 197

The tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral state. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Equatorial Pacific Ocean remain marginally below average, with a value of -0.3°C in the NINO3.4 region for the month of January 2017 (and so doesn’t exceed the threshold used to define La Niña events).

February to April 2017 rainfall forecast

Regional drought potential advisory

Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months

Nauru, Kiribati Gilbert and Line Islands: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over the past 6 months in the Gilbert Islands and Nauru and 5 of the past 6 months in the Line Islands. Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.

Kiribati, Phoenix Island: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 4 of the past 6 months. Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.

Tokelau: Below normal rainfall experienced over 4 of the past 6 months. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.

Tuvalu: Below normal rainfall experienced over 3 of the past 6 months. Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.