Island Climate Update 257 - February 2022

The NINO3.4 Index anomaly (in the central Pacific) during January was -0.70˚C, in the La Niña range. The monthly SOI was +0.3 and the three-month average SOI was +0.9, the latter near the La Niña threshold.

Upper-oceanic heat content increased in the western and central Pacific during January, signalling the decay of La Niña. Meanwhile, conditions remained cooler than average in the eastern Pacific.

In the subsurface equatorial Pacific, a substantial warm pool (+2˚C to +3˚C) at around 150 m depth continued to progress eastward from western Pacific, which indicated an ongoing, gradual easing of La Niña conditions.

La Niña conditions are forecast to continue during February-April (75% chance). From May-July, there is a 65% chance for the re-emergence of ENSO neutral conditions. Between August-October, ENSO neutral is favoured at a 50% chance.

A pulse of convective activity associated with La Niña and the Madden-Julian Oscillation will be over the western Pacific during early February, contributing to an increased risk for tropical cyclone activity. Island groups in the western part of the basin, New Caledonia and Vanuatu in particular, should remain up-to-date with the weather forecast.

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