Island Climate Update 195 - December 2016

Download the PDF: Island Climate Update 195

The tropical Pacific exhibits mainly neutral conditions. International guidance still slightly favors La Niña conditions (53% chance) over the next three month period (December 2016 - February 2017). However, neutral conditions are much more likely than La Niña by March-May 2017: 80% chance for neutral, and only 16% for La Niña.

In summary, La Niña conditions are only slightly more likely than not over the next 3-month period, and become significantly less likely as we progress into 2017.

December to February 2017 rainfall forecast

Regional drought potential advisory

Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months

Nauru, Kiribati Gilbert and Line Islands: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over the past 6 months in the Gilbert Islands and  Nauru and 5 of the past 6 months in the Line Islands. Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.

Northern and Southern Vanuatu: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 4 of the past 6 months. Near normal rainfall is forecast for both northern and southern Vanuatu for the next 3 months.

Kiribati Phoenix Islands, Pitcairn, Tuvalu: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 3 of the past 6 months in Pitcairn and 2 of the past 6 months in Tuvalu and Kiribati’s Phoenix Islands. Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months for Tuvalu and the Phoenix Islands while normal or below normal rainfall is expected in Pitcairn.