Island Climate Update 100 - January 2009

Monthly average strike rate statistics for the ICU (January 2001-October 2008).
Long term trend in ICU strike rate, January 2001-present.
The Centennial Issue of the Island Climate Update: Progress and success resulting from a multi-model ensemble forecast
Andrew Lorrey, Jim Salinger, and James Renwick (NIWA)
The strength of the Island Climate Update (ICU) forecast is drawn from two primary sources: a regional discussion about local climate information by Pacific Island Meteorological Services members each month, and external input from international research organisations which produce fo

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 100 – January 2009
December’s climate
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was displaced southwest of its normal position.
Very suppressed convection near Western Kiribati and south of the Equator from Nauru east to northern French Polynesia.
Above normal rainfall for few areas in the South Pacific, with a record high in the Southern Cook Islands.
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENS

Climate developments in December 2008
Outgoing Long-wave Radiation anomalies for December 2008. (Click for enlargement and detail)
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) activity was displaced south and west of normal during December, and less consolidated than last month. A region of enhanced rainfall was observed during December 2008 over southern Papua New Guinea and northeast Australia, and to the southeast of New Caledonia.

Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: January to March 2009
Rainfall outlook map for January to March 2009. (Click for enlargement)
Sea surface temperature outlook map for January to March 2009. (Click for enlargement)
During the January–March 2009 forecast period, a region of suppressed convection is likely to encompass the central and eastern Southwest Pacific, extending from Western Kiribati to Eastern Kiribati, including Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Northern Cook Islands, and the Tuamotu archipelago. Below normal rainfall is expected.

Tropical Pacific rainfall - December 2008
Territory and station name
December 2008 rainfall
total (mm)
December 2008 percent
of average
Australia
Cairns Airport
197
107
Townsville Airport
179
137
Brisbane Airport
63
50
Sydney Airport
54
71
Cook Islands
Penrhyn
83
26
Aitutaki
304
145
Rarotonga Airport
471
251
Fiji
Rotuma Island
138
48
Udu Point
309
117
Nadi Airport
271
152
Nausori
239
90
French Polynesia
Hiva Hoa, Atuona
58
58
Bora Bora
150
55
Tahiti – Faa’a
106
30
Tuamotu, Takaroa
105
48
Gambier, Rikitea
216
104
Tubuai
35

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations:
American Samoa
Australia
Cook Islands
Fiji
French Polynesia
Kiribati
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Papua New Guinea
Pitcairn Island
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tokelau
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned.
Acknowledgements
This bulletin is produced by NIWA and made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), with addi