09 May 2016
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
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Download ICU Water Watch (PDF 348 KB)
In this issue
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño conditions eased in the tropical Pacific during April 2016, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) now typically only about +1°C warmer than normal.-
South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast May to July 2016
The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. -
Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: May to July 2016
The dynamical models are in agreement to forecast rapidly weakening El Niño conditions for the May – July 2016 period, with a return to neutral conditions over the season as a whole the most likely outcome (76% chance). -
ICU Water Watch
Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.