11 November 2014
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- Borderline El Niño conditions returned in the Pacific during September 2014.
- Oceanic and atmospheric indicators are pointing in the direction of a possible weak El Niño event developing.
- Chances for El Niño over the October – December 2014 period are 67%, increasing to 72% in December 2014 – February 2015.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- The SPCZ is expected to be positioned close to normal for the coming three months.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas, New Caledonia, Samoa, the Society Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, the Northern Cook Islands, Fiji, Tokelau, the Tuamotu archipelago and Wallis & Futuna.
- Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, the Solomon Islands, Eastern Kiribati, Niue and Papua New Guinea.
- Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, the Solomon Islands, Eastern Kiribati, Niue and Papua New Guinea.
