03 July 2014
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain warmer than normal in the central and eastern Pacific, at or above El Niño thresholds.
- The atmosphere has yet to show anomalies typical of El Niño.
- Chances for El Niño over the July - September 2014 period are about 70%, increasing to about 80% in October - December.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- The SPCZ is expected to be positioned mostly close to normal for the coming three months.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Papua New Guinea, the Northern Cook Islands, the Marquesas, New Caledonia, the Society Islands, Tokelau, the Tuamotu archipelago, Tuvalu and Vanuatu.
- Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Federated States of Micronesia, the Southern Cook Islands, Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati.
- Above normal SSTs are forecast for Eastern Kiribati. Normal or below normal SSTs are forecast for the southern Cook Islands, the Austral Islands, Pitcairn Island and the Society Islands
