Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

•  Strong El Niño conditions were established in September  2015. 
•  Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and precipitation anomalies continued to intensify in the eastern Pacific
•  El Niño is virtually certain (99% chance) to continue in October – December 2015.  

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north of climatology.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

•  Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, New Caledonia, the Society Islands, Wallis & Futuna, the Federated States of Micronesia, the southern Cook Islands, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga and Fiji.

• Above normal rainfall is forecast for eastern Kiribati, western Kiribati and Tuvalu.

• Above normal SSTs are forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati and the Marquesas.