10 December 2014
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific have crossed El Niño thresholds in November 2014.
- Some atmospheric indicators also indicate a weak El Niño developing.
- Probability for El Niño during the December 2014 – February 2015 period is about 75%.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- The SPCZ is expected to be positioned northeast of normal for the coming three months.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, Eastern Kiribati, Niue, Pitcairn Island, Tuvalu, Wallis & Futuna, the Marquesas, New Caledonia, the Tuamotu archipelago and Vanuatu.
- Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, the Society islands, Western Kiribati and Papua New Guinea.
- Above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are forecast for western Kiribati and eastern Kiribati. Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for Fiji, the Federated States of Micronesia, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tuvalu and Wallis & Futuna.
