10 November 2008
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 98 – November 2008
October’s climate
- The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was active across southern Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, and New Caledonia this past month, and was displaced southwest of its normal position.
- Very suppressed convection across much of the region, particularly near Western Kiribati and south of the Equator from Nauru southeast to the Society Islands.
- Below normal rainfall for many areas in the South Pacific, including Samoa and southwestern French Polynesia, but above normal rainfall in Vanuatu.
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal rainfall, and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Neutral ENSO conditions exist in the tropical Pacific at present. Most climate models project neutral ENSO conditions persisting into early 2009.
- Below average rainfall is forecast for Western Kiribati, the Marquesas, the Society Islands, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Wallis & Futuna, Samoa, the Northern Cook Islands, and the Tuamotu archipelago.
- Above normal rainfall is expected for Papua New Guinea, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and Tonga for the coming three months.
- Normal to above normal SSTs are forecast for the southwestern half of the southwest Pacific region. Normal to below normal SSTs are forecast for the northeast half of the southwest Pacific, except for the Society Islands which are projected to have near normal SSTs.
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