11 September 2008
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 96 – September 2008
August’s climate
- The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was not as well-defined in August as in previous months.
- Very suppressed convection from Western Kiribati to Eastern Kiribati and south of the Equator from Nauru to the Northern Cook Islands.
- Well–below normal rainfall for most areas in the South Pacific, including Tonga, Samoa, Vanuatu, and Fiji.
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal rainfall, and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Neutral ENSO conditions exist in the tropical Pacific at present. Most climate models project neutral ENSO conditions persisting into early 2009.
- Average or below average rainfall is forecast for Western Kiribati and Tuvalu, and also Tokelau, the Northern Cook Islands, Pitcairn Island, and the northeastern half of French Polynesia.
- Above normal rainfall is expected to be centralised near Vanuatu, north of New Caledonia, and east of the Solomon Islands. Near–to–above average rainfall is forecast for Fiji, Niue, Tonga, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and New Caledonia for the coming three-month period.
- Normal to above normal SSTs are forecast to extend from near Papua New Guinea, southeast to the Austral Islands and Pitcairn Island, including Fiji, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Tonga, and Niue. Normal to below normal SSTs are forecast for northeastern French Polynesia, including northern Tuamotu and the Marquesas Islands.
A complete copy of The Island Climate Update is available as an Adobe Acrobat PDF file. This does not contain any extra information over that obtained by clicking on the individual items above.
To view the PDF file, you'll need Adobe Acrobat Reader, which you can download free from Adobe.
