Three-month outlook: August to October 2007
Rainfall outlook map for August to October 2007. (Click for enlargement)
Enhanced convection is likely over Samoa where rainfall is expected to be above average.
A large region of near or above average rainfall is likely from Papua New Guinea east southeastwards to the Austral Islands including, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna, the Northern and Southern Cook Islands, Fiji, Tonga, Niue, and the Society Islands.
Supressed convection is likely over Western and Eastern Kiribati, and Tuvalu, where rainfall is expected to be below average.
Near or below average rainfall is likely over Pitcairn Island. Rainfall is expected to be near average over Tokelau, Tuamotu, and the Marquesas Islands.
The confidence in the forecast model skill is generally moderate this seasonal outlook.
| Island group | Rainfall outlook | Outlook confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Samoa | 20:35:45 (Above) | Moderate |
| Papua New Guinea | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Solomon Islands | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Vanuatu | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| New Caledonia | 25:35:40 (Near or above) | Low |
| Wallis and Futuna | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Northern Cook Islands | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Fiji | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Tonga | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Niue | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Southern Cook Islands | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Society Islands | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Austral Islands | 20:40:40 (Near or above)) | Moderate |
| Tokelau | 30:40:30 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Tuamotu Islands | 30:40:30 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Marquesas Islands | 35:40:25 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Pitcairn Island | 40:40:20 (Near or below) | Moderate |
| Western Kiribati | 45:35:20 (Below) | Moderate |
| Eastern Kiribati | 40:35:25 (Below) | Moderate |
| Tuvalu | 45:35:10 (Below) | Moderate |
NOTE: Rainfall estimates for Pacific Islands for the next three months are given in the table. The tercile probabilities (e.g., 20:30:50) are derived from the interpretation of several global climate models. They correspond to the odds of the observed rainfall being in the lowest (driest) one third of the rainfall distribution, the middle one third, or the highest (wettest) one third of the distribution. On the long-term average, rainfall is equally likely (33% chance) in any tercile.