Tropical rainfall outlook: January to March 2007
Enhanced convection with above average rainfall is likely in the equatorial region of Western and Eastern Kiribati extending to about 10°S to include the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, and Tokelau.
A large region of near or above average rainfall is expected from Wallis and Futuna east-southeast to the Pitcairn Island including, the Northern and Southern Cook Islands, and French Polynesia.
Suppressed convection is likely over Vanuatu and New Caledonia where rainfall is expected to be below average.
Near or below average rainfall is forecast for Fiji and Tonga.
Forecast model skills for this time of the year are around moderate to high for most countries in the region.
| Island group | Rainfall outlook | Outlook confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Western Kiribati | 20:25:50 (Above) | Moderate – high |
| Eastern Kiribati | 20:25:50 (Above) | Moderate – high |
| Solomon Islands | 20:30:50 (Above) | Moderate – high |
| Tuvalu | 20:25:50 (Above) | Moderate – high |
| Tokelau | 20:25:50 (Above) | Moderate |
| Wallis and Futuna | 20:40:40 (Average or above) | Moderate |
| Northern Cook Islands | 20:40:40 (Average or above) | Moderate – high |
| Southern Cook Islands | 40:40:40 (Average or above) | Moderate – high |
| Society Islands | 40:40:40 (Average or above) | Moderate – high |
| Austral Islands | 40:40:40 (Average or above) | Moderate – high |
| Tuamotu Islands | 20:40:40 (Average or above) | Moderate |
| Marquesas Islands | 20:40:40 (Average or above) | Moderate |
| Pitcairn Island | 20:40:40 (Average or above) | Moderate |
| Papua New Guinea | 20:45:35 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Samoa | 30:40:30 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Niue | 35:45:20 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Fiji | 45:40:15 (Average or below) | Moderate |
| Tonga | 40:40:20 (Average or below) | Moderate – high |
| Vanuatu | 45:30:25 (Below) | Moderate – high |
| New Caledonia | 45:35:20 (Below) | Moderate |
NOTE: Rainfall estimates for Pacific Islands for the next three months are given in the table. The tercile probabilities (e.g., 20:30:50) are derived from the interpretation of several global climate models. They correspond to the odds of the observed rainfall being in the lowest (driest) one third of the rainfall distribution, the middle one third, or the highest (wettest) one third of the distribution. On the long-term average, rainfall is equally likely (33% chance) in any tercile.