23 November 2015
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
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Strong El Niño conditions persisted in October 2015.
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Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and precipitation anomalies continued to intensify in the central and eastern Pacific
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El Niño is certain (100% chance) to continue over the coming season (November 2015 – January 2016).
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north of climatology in the central Pacific.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
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Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, New Caledonia, Wallis & Futuna, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Fiji, Samoa, Vanuatu, the Federated States of Micronesia, the southern Cook Islands, Niue and Tonga.
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Above normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati, Western Kiribati, Tuvalu and Tokelau.
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Above normal SSTs are forecast for western Kiribati and eastern Kiribati.
