Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

•  El Niño conditions continued to strengthen further during August 2015.
•  Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and precipitation anomalies continued to intensify in the eastern Pacific.
• El Niño conditions are certain (100% chance) to continue in September – November 2015.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north of climatology.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Southern Cook Islands, the Solomon Islands, Fiji, the Society Islands, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Tonga and Vanuatu. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, New Caledonia, Samoa, Tuamotu, Wallis and Futuna, the Northern Cook Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia.
• Above normal rainfall is forecast for Tuvalu, Tokelau, Western Kiribati and Eastern Kiribati. Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for Pitcairn Island and Tokelau.
• Above normal SSTs are forecast for western Kiribati and eastern Kiribati.