Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• Warming of the sea surface across the equatorial Pacific Ocean continued in April 2015 and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies currently reflect weak El Niño conditions.
• Regional atmospheric patterns are also consistent with weak El Niño conditions.

• Probability for El Niño during May – July 2015 is about 80 %.

  The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north of climatology in the western Pacific for the coming three months.

  Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the southern Cook Islands, New Caledonia, Samoa, the Society Islands, Tokelau, the Tuamotu Archipelago, Wallis & Futuna, the northern Cook Islands, the Marquesas, Niue and Tonga.
• Above normal rainfall is forecast for eastern Kiribati and western Kiribati. Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for Tuvalu.
• Above normal SSTs are forecast for Western Kiribati and Eastern Kiribati. Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for New Caledonia, the northern Cook Islands, Samoa, Tokelau and Tuvalu.