The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.
The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models.
The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every five degrees of longitude.
The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.
For January - March 2015, the SPCZ is forecast to be located northeast of climatology for this time of year. Enhanced convection is expected west of the International Dateline in many models, with the general branching location of the SPCZ off of the ITCZ forecast east of normal. Uncertainty in the SPCZ position is greatest to the east of the Dateline.
