Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• The Equatorial Pacific Ocean is currently above El Niño thresholds. Regional atmospheric circulation has yet to align to the oceanic conditions, producing rainfall patterns in the subtropics that are not entirely consistent with El Niño.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned northeast of normal for the coming three months. Intense convection

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Tonga and the Marquesas.
• Above normal rainfall is expected for Western Kiribati and Papua New Guinea.
• The sea surface temperature anomalies associated with El Niño are expected to persist along the Equator, while the subtropics are also expected to warm in the coming months.