07 March 2014
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- The tropical Pacific remains in a neutral ENSO state.
- Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are slightly cooler than normal in the eastern equatorial Pacific
- International guidance indicates that neutral ENSO conditions are likely (87 % chance) to persist for the coming three months. Chances of El Niño increase towards the Southern Hemisphere winter.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- The SPCZ is expected to be positioned slightly southwest of normal for the coming three months in the central and eastern Pacific
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Samoa, the Society Islands, Tokelau, the Tuamotu Archipelago, Tuvalu and the Northern Cook Islands. Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas.
- Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Federated States of Micronesia, the Austral Islands, the Southern Cook Islands, Western Kiribati, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Pitcairn Island, Vanuatu, and the Federated States of Micronesia.
- Near or above normal SSTs are forecast for Fiji, Western Kiribati and Tonga. Normal SSTs are generally expected elsewhere.
NIWA
