The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.
The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of 8 climate models. The white vertical bars and 'whiskers' indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every 5 degrees of longitude. The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.
The ensemble of dynamical forecasts indicates that the SPCZ is expected to sit slightly south of normal for this time of year, and more intense than normal convective activity is forecast for Gulf of Carpentaria, Bismarck Archipelago, Solomon Islands and northern Vanuatu.
Uncertainty in the SPCZ position is relatively large, especially east of the International Dateline.
