28 June 2013
The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of 8 climate models. The white vertical bars and 'whiskers' indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every 5 degrees of longitude.
The forecast indicates the SPCZ will be positioned very close to or slightly south of its normal location for the coming three months.
Confidence in the forecast is high. The greatest uncertainty in the forecast is east of the Tuamotu Archipelago and near Pitcairn Island.
