28 June 2013
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- The ocean remains slightly cooler than average in the eastern equatorial Pacific, but close to normal elsewhere along the Equator.
- All oceanic and atmospheric ENSO indicators are currently in the neutral range.
- The international consensus is for neutral ENSO conditions to persist over the coming three months (July to September 2013).
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- NOTE: The South Pacific Convergence Zone position forecast will be issued on the 7th of July 2013.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati, Tokelau and Tuvalu.
- Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for Papua New Guinea, Niue, Samoa and the Solomon Islands.
- Near or above average SST is forecast for the Austral Islands, Niue, the Northern Cook Islands, the Southern Cook Islands, Fiji, Western Kiribati, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Tonga and Wallis & Futuna.
