06 March 2013
The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of 8 climate models. The white vertical bars and 'whiskers' indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every 5 degrees of longitude.
For March-May 2013, the multi model ensemble indicates that the SPCZ will sit slightly south of normal (climatology) to the west of the Dateline, while east of the Dateline it will be in a near-normal position. Model uncertainty is largest near Papua New Guinea, Tonga and in the Tuamotu Archipelago region.
