06 March 2013
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- The Tropical Pacific Ocean is still slightly cooler than normal along the Equator to the east of the Dateline, and warmer than normal in the Western Pacific Warm Pool, but the amplitude of the anomalies has weakened compared to last month.
- Neutral ENSO conditions exist at present, and all oceanic and atmospheric indicators are close to normal.
- The international consensus is for neutral ENSO conditions to persist over the coming three months (March to May 2013).
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- For the coming three months, the SPCZ is forecast to sit slightly south of normal to the west of the Dateline, while east of the Dateline it will be in a near-normal position.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, the Northern Cook Islands, Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati, the Marquesas, Tokelau and Tuvalu.
- Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for Papua New Guinea, Tonga, New Caledonia, Niue, the Solomon Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia.
- Near normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Fiji, Niue and Tonga.
