The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.
The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of 8 climate models.
The white vertical bars and 'whiskers' indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every 5 degrees of longitude.
For the coming three months, the dynamical models forecasts indicate that the SPCZ is likely to sit in a position near or slightly north of its climatological position over most of the southwest Pacific. West of about 170 °E however the SPCZ position is shifted southward compared to the climatology.
Uncertainty in the SPCZ position for the forecast period is high for the whole region.
