04 October 2012
El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- The Tropical Pacific Ocean is still warmer than normal, but surface and subsurface anomalies have weakened over the past few weeks.
- The probability of El Niño development is diminishing. If an event develops over the forecast period, it is likely to be weak and shortlived.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone
- The South Pacific Convergence Zone was well organized and situated south of its climatological position in September. For the coming three months, the SPCZ is forecast to mostly sit in a position near or slightly north of normal for this time of the year.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Southern Cook Islands, New Caledonia, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, Samoa, Tonga and Wallis & Futuna.
- Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati, the Northern Cook Islands, the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, the Federated States of Micronesia and Tokelau.
- Sea surface temperatures are still expected to be warmer than normal along the Equator to the east of the Dateline.
