09 March 2009
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 101 – February 2009
January’s climate
- The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was displaced southwest of its normal position and was very active.
- Very suppressed convection near Western Kiribati and south of the Equator from Nauru east to northern French Polynesia.
- Normal to well above normal rainfall for many areas in the South Pacific, with many new records established in Fiji.
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal rainfall, and sea surface temperature forecasts
- La Niña-like conditions exist in the tropical Pacific. Many climate models project continuation of La Niña through to the end of summer 2009.
- Below normal rainfall is forecast for Western Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Northern Cook Islands, and the Society Islands.
- Above normal rainfall is expected for New Caledonia, Niue, Tonga, and Papua New Guinea.
- Normal to above normal SSTs are forecast for the southwestern half of the southwest Pacific region. Normal to below normal SSTs are forecast for the northeast half of the southwest Pacific.
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