Forecast validation
Forecast period: August to October 2003
Average or above average rainfall was expected from Papua New Guinea east to Tokelau, including Samoa, with above average rainfall forecast for Tokelau and Tuvalu. Average or below average rainfall was expected from Western Kiribati east-southeast to the Marquesas Islands, with below average totals in Eastern Kiribati. Another large region of average or below average rainfall was expected from Vanuatu to the Society Islands, including the Southern Cook Islands, Fiji, Tonga and Niue. Near average rainfall was expected elsewhere.
Rainfall was below average over much the Southwest Pacific and above average in the north of Papua New Guinea, Niue and on Pitcairn Island.
The SPCZ was weaker than average, allowing the region of below average rainfall to extend much further north than predicted, with lower than forecast rainfall in the Solomon Islands, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, and Tokelau. Rainfall was also lower than expected in the Tuamotu Islands. Rainfall was higher than forecast in Niue and on Pitcairn Island.