Forecast validation
Forecast period: June to August 2003
Normal or above normal rainfall was expected from Papua New-Guinea east-southeast to the Society Islands of French Polynesia. Average or below normal rainfall was forecast for the Marquesas Islands. Near normal rainfall was expected elsewhere.
Rainfall was below normal in an extensive region along the equator from west of the Caroline Islands to the region northeast of the Marquesas Islands, and also from the Coral Sea southeast to the region south of Tonga. Rainfall was above normal over much of the Cook Islands east to Pitcairn Island, including the Society Islands of French Polynesia.
Rainfall was lower than forecast in Western and Eastern Kiribati, Tokelau, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa and Fiji, and higher than forecast in Pitcairn Island, with mixed anomalies over Tonga and the Austral Islands. The overall ‘hit rate’ for the June to August rainfall outlook was just over 50%.