Forecast validation
Forecast period: March to May 2003
Enhanced convection was expected over Western and Eastern Kiribati, possibly extending south to include Tuvalu. Below average rainfall was expected in the Marquesas Islands of northern French Polynesia, with average or below average rainfall in most areas from New Caledonia to the Austral Islands, including Fiji, Tonga, Samoa and Niue. Near average rainfall was projected elsewhere.
The region of above average rainfall was generally further south than expected, reaching Samoa and the Tuamotu Islands, leaving Kiribati with mixed rainfalls, rather than above average. Rainfall was higher than forecast over parts of New Caledonia, and lower than expected over Pitcairn Island. The overall ‘hit rate’ for the March to May rainfall outlook was 57%, the lowest for the past 8 months.