ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures
El Niño continues to weaken towards a neutral state
Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies eased further
The El Niño event in the tropical Pacific is nearing its end. Most of the leading El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) models show that the event will weaken to a neutral state by early winter in southern hemisphere.
The NINO3 SST anomaly eased further to +0.4°C in March, and NINO4 remains near +1.0°C. The three month (January–March) means are about +0.7°C and +1.1°C for NINO3 and NINO4, respectively. Equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies remain weak and have only changed slightly since February. Zonal winds are close to normal across the equatorial Pacific, but an area of reduced OLR (enhanced convection) persists near the date line, associated with above average SSTs in the NINO4 region. The area of suppressed convection evident in February over the Coral Sea has dissipated, while a new region has developed east of 160°W.
Most of the global climate models indicate a trend to neutral conditions from the present through the southern hemisphere winter and into spring.
Sea surface temperature anomalies (°C) for March 2003
Mean sea surface temperatures (°C) for March 2003
