An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 30 – 6 March 2003
February’s climate: The El Niño episode although weakening continued to affect Southwest Pacific rainfall patterns, with enhanced convection and above average rainfall extending from Western Kiribati through Tokelau to the Northern Cook Islands. In contrast, a large area of suppressed convection and below average rainfall extended from Papua New-Guinea to Niue. February rainfall was also above average from the Tuamotu Islands of French Polynesia to Pitcairn Island.
There have been six tropical cyclones so far this season, the latest being ‘Erica’, which tracked southeast in the western Coral Sea area off the Queensland coast of Australia from 4–6 March.
ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): Based on current conditions, and the recent model forecasts, the present El Niño event is expected to ease back to neutral by the end of May 2003. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) strengthened to -0.9 in February and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific, and other indicators, weakened further during February.
Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?
Three month outlook: Continued enhanced convection and above average rainfall expected to persist in the equatorial region, with average or above average rainfall in Tuvalu. Below average or average rainfall is likely from New Caledonia, eastwards to Niue, including the Austral Islands. Below average rainfall is expected in the Marquesas Islands. Near average rainfall is expected elsewhere.
Feature article: The Southwest Pacific Climate in 2002.
Sources of South Pacific rainfall data.
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