28 February 2007
ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures
El Niño expected to weaken in the Autumn of 2003
Equatorial Pacific SSTs continue to warm
Sea surface temperature anomalies across the Equatorial Pacific are very positive from the date line across to the South America.
The NINO3 region and NINO4 regional sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were around +1.6°C and +1.7°C respectively in November. The September – November 2002 mean SSTs were about +1.3°C for NINO3, and +1.4°C in the NINO4 region. The normal El Niño related extratropical SST cool “horseshoe” is becoming moreorganised.
The latest US National Center for Environmental Prediction statement suggests that the present El Niño event will peak over the southern hemisphere summer (while remaining weaker than the 1997/98 event), and will then weaken then in the autumn of 2003.
Sea surface temperature anomalies (°C) for November 2002
Mean sea surface temperatures (°C) for November 2002
