Forecast validation
Forecast period: December 2001 to February 2002
The trade winds were expected to remain slightly enhanced across the central Pacific, pushing the SPCZ a little further south than usual. Resulting rainfall was expected to be below average in Tokelau, Eastern Kiribati, Samoa, the Northern Cook Islands, and the Marquesas Islands of French Polynesia. Average rainfall was expected in other parts of French Polynesia and from Fiji to Tuvalu. Average to above average rainfalls were projected for most places west of 170°E, including Tonga, and the Southern Cook Islands.
This scenario was correct for many islands. Rainfall was lower than expected in Vanuatu and the Southern Cook Islands, and higher than forecast in areas of Eastern Kiribati, Tuvalu, Fiji, Samoa, and the Tuamotu Islands. Mixed rainfall patterns occurred over Vanuatu, the Northern Cooks, Society and Austral Islands. The overall 'hit rate' for the December to February rainfall outlook was about 60%.