Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• El Niño conditions consolidated in June 2015.
• Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and precipitation anomalies intensified in the eastern Pacific.

• El Niño is extremely likely (95% chance) to continue in July – September 2015.

  The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north of climatology in the western Pacific.

  Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Solomon Islands, Tonga, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Society Islands, the Northern Cook Islands, Fiji, the Marquesas, New Caledonia, Niue, Samoa, Tokelau, the Tuamotu archipelago and Wallis & Futuna.
• Above normal rainfall is forecast for Western Kiribati, Eastern Kiribati and Tuvalu. Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Federated States of Micronesia, the Austral Islands and Pitcairn Island.
• Above normal SSTs are forecast for eastern and western Kiribati. Below normal SSTs are forecast for Fiji, Tonga and Vanuatu.