06 May 2014
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- The tropical Pacific remains in a neutral ENSO state in April 2014, but models forecasts and current indicators collectively suggest El Niño is likely by the middle of the year.
- Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are warmer than normal in the central and eastern Pacific.
- Chances for El Niño have increased to 45 % over the forecast period. El Niño is likely to occur by the middle of the year.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- The SPCZ is expected to be positioned mostly close to normal for the coming three months.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Society Islands,Tonga, the Tuamotu archipelago, Wallis & Futuna, the northern Cook Islands, Fiji, the Marquesas, New Caledonia, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tuvalu and Vanuatu.
- Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati, Western Kiribati, the Federated States of Micronesia and the Southern Cook Islands.
- Near or above normal SSTs are forecast for Western Kiribati. Normal SSTs are generally expected elsewhere.
